Our new paper on global heat and rainfall extremes has just been published (open access). It's an update of our earlier work done a decade ago. The extra decade of global warming has greatly increased the number of extreme events. 1/3 nature.com/articles/s41612-0โ€ฆ
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For monthly heat extremes, we find that the land area affected by 3-sigma heat has almost doubled, and 4-sigma heat has now newly emerged in the observations, compared to ten years ago. 3-sigma extremes now occur 90 times more often than in the reference period 1951โˆ’1980. 2/3
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This graph shows the increase in record-breaking daily rainfall events (which can cause flash flooding). Since the 1990s we find a statistically significant increase, which will very likely continue with any further global warming. 3/3
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Why is a modest upward trend predicted sans climate change?
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Replying to @bjartur @rahmstorf
You can notice it also spreads downward. The variance towards the future becomes broader, to the positive as well as the negative, because there is only historical data to build on, since there is no observed climate without the warming effect.

Oct 7, 2021 ยท 6:18 PM UTC

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Good question. Which factors wd increase record rainfall events between 2005-2020. Maybe air pollution increase. Or 2 lazy solar activity cycles in a row letting more cosmic radiation in, which is suspected to be cloud-seeding. Or 18.6 yrs long Lunar nodal cycle which peaked 2015